One-point margin sets up a final-race Supercross showdown

May 07, 2026

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Technically, the 2026 Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship battle could be closer. If the points were tied. But in reality, that's only happened twice in Supercross history, and it sets up a very simple but compelling scenario: two riders and whichever one beats the other will be champion.

Lawrence on his Honda leads the pack into the first turn in the race — Hunter Lawrence (96) did exactly what he needed to do at last weekend's penultimate race in Denver. He got the holeshot and led the entire way, closing the points gap to Ken Roczen, who finished second, to just a single point. Align Media photo.

Progressive Insurance Cycle Gear Suzuki's Ken Roczen leads Honda HRC Progressive's Hunter Lawrence by one point going into the final round in Salt Lake City on Saturday night. Everyone else has been eliminated from championship contention. But even that slim, one-point margin doesn't fully show how closely matched the two contenders have been this year. Just look at the stats below.

2026 Monster Energy AMA Supercross title chase
	Points	Wins	Podium	Top five
Ken Roczen	332	5	12	13
Hunter Lawrence	331	5	12	14

For a really deep dive into Supercross stats, the required reading is the Shop Rag research at WeWentFast.com by our friend Brett Smith. But here are the essentials. If Roczen and Lawrence finish in the top four (and that seems likely, considering their recent form), then it's a simple case of whoever finishes ahead of the other will win the championship, because the difference between positions in the top four is more than one point.

Roczen whips his Suzuki sideways as he flies over a jump during the Denver Supercross race — Ken Roczen has led the Supercross points at some point in the season in nine different years but has never won the title. Suzuki photo.

Now, you know how some racers derisively put down a second-place finish, saying that finishing second is just being first loser? Well, Lawrence started off the season with quite a few second-place finishes. This time, those could be valuable. If something strange happens and the two riders both finish down the order, with Lawrence gaining one point on Roczen and leaving them tied, Lawrence would be champion by virtue of the tie-breaker. They'd both have the same number of wins but Lawrence would have more second-place finishes.

Lawrence and Roczen shake hands while sitting on their race bikes after the end of the race in Denver — Roczen congratulates Lawrence after the Honda rider ran away with the 450 Main at Denver this past weekend to cut the points gap to a single point going into the final round. One of the two will be the 2026 Supercross champion. Align Media photo.

For historical perspective Brett points out that Roczen was 31 points behind at one point in the season, so if he wins the championship it will be the second-biggest comeback in Supercross history, behind only David Bailey's 43-point comeback in 1983. And what were those two times the race was closer going into the final round? In 2006, Ricky Carmichael and Chad Reed were tied going into the final race, and in 1985 Jeff Ward and Broc Glover were even on points when the last gate dropped.