Why they line up on Sunday: The unpredictability of racing

Hayden's 2006 world championship epitomized that better than anything. Going into that final race at Valencia, with Valentino Rossi on pole and eight points ahead of Hayden, who qualified fifth, who truly believed Hayden would be world champ at the end of the day? Yet he was.

The racing this weekend once again proved the point — though since this is Superbike racing, it may be better to amend Nicky's statement and say that the unpredictable nature of racing is why they line up on Saturday.

If you read my MotoAmerica season preview article, you know that Josh Herrin, the 2013 and 2024 Superbike champ and 2022 Supersport champ, riding for the strong Rahal Ducati Moto team, was a clear favorite, after dropping from Superbike down to Supersport this season and winning his fourth straight Daytona 200. And you know that the entire paddock considered six-time Superbike champion Cameron Beaubier, the all-time winningest rider in AMA roadracing history, to be a clear favorite in the Quad Lock Superbike class, now that he's on a Ducati Panigale V4 with the Warhorse HSBK Ducati Flo4Law team. But instead of handing out trophies ahead of time based on conventional wisdom, they went ahead and lined up on Saturday to go racing. And not much went according to expectations.

From last to unlucky to lucky (but still last) to third

Beaubier's Saturday at the MotoAmerica Superbikes at Road Atlanta round epitomized Hayden's saying. Despite being the preseason favorite and fastest in Friday practice, Beaubier's title defense got off to a terrible start when he crashed on his first flying lap in the sole Superbike qualifying session. With no qualifying time — and with the Superbike Cup (former Stock 1000) bikes racing alongside the full-fledged Superbikes, that meant Beaubier had to start both Saturday's and Sunday's races from 20th on the grid.

Beaubier made quick work of the slower Superbike Cup bikes and was up to eighth place after five laps, but then his right foot slipped off the footpeg, he looked down to see oil leaking, and he slowed to get off the racing line.

So who would benefit most from Beaubier's misfortunes? Maybe it would be the other preseason favorite, Attack Performance Progressive Yamaha Racing's Bobby Fong, who seemed to have last year's Superbike championship in hand until Beaubier stole it away the last day of the season. But no, moments later Fong crashed while running second. And then Manuel Segura crashed, and with his bike lying in the middle of the track, the red flags came out.

That gave Beaubier's team time to replace the gasket that was causing the oil leak. Lucky break! But because the repair took a while, he didn't get back on track in time for the sighting lap for the restart, so he had to start from the back of the field — again. Bad break!

Up front, Strack Racing's Mathew Scholtz got his second perfect start and pulled away from the field, while Beaubier worked his way through the pack again. Only those two were able to lap in the 1:24 range, and despite running off track once at the end of Road Atlanta's long back straight when headshake caused his Ducati to lose its brakes temporarily (see the photo at top), Beaubier relentlessly moved up to third for an unlikely podium finish.

"A wild day. I was feeling good in qualifying and I just tried to ask too much too soon on this day," Beaubier said of his morning crash. "The Ducati is a pretty incredible motorcycle but it will snap you around if you try to disrespect it. That's what happened this morning."

"It was a pretty eventful day and race. Third place feels like a win."

Supersport: The wild card, not the favorite

Similarly, everyone had Josh Herrin pegged as the favorite in Supersport. On the first lap, Celtic/Economy Lube + Tire/Warhorse rider Darryn Binder, a 28-year-old South African with MotoGP experience on his resume, draft-passed from fourth to first on the back straight, but Herrin was slotted into second. Until he ran off track in the final turn 12 as the pack streamed by. Herrin finished the first lap in 22nd place.

From there, Herrin worked his way through the pack and recorded the fastest lap time of the race, finishing in fifth place, while Binder won a tight battle with M4 ECSTAR Suzuki's Tyler Scott to take his first MotoAmerica win. Binder's win at Road Atlanta and his fourth-place finish in the Daytona 200 gave him the points lead over Herrin, with his win at Daytona and fifth at Atlanta. Not what anyone predicted. Until they lined up on Saturday.

And then on Sunday, it all lined up

Normal service resumed? Maybe not exactly, but closer.

Herrin rode a tactical race on Sunday, as a four-rider breakaway trimmed down to just him and Binder. It looked like the race was setting up for a last-lap battle, but with a lap and a half to go, Binder tucked in so tightly he accidentally hit his kill switch. He recovered and refired the bike quickly, but that put him more than a second behind, with no chance to pass Herrin. The favorite was back on the top step of the podium.

In Superbike, Scholtz got another good start from pole but this time Fong stayed with him the entire race. Fans were robbed of a last-lap showdown when the clutch on Scholtz's bike started slipping with a few laps to go. Fong cruised to the win by 2.9 seconds and OrangeCat Racing's Sean Dylan Kelly finishing third to follow up his second-place finish on Saturday for a strong start to the season.

So racing isn't always wildly unpredictable. Sometimes it's just ordinarily unpredictable, with accidental kill switches and smoked clutches. But that unpredictability is a big part of what makes it fun. It's why they line up on Sunday. And why we watch on Sunday.

MotoAmerica Quad Lock Superbike			MotoAmerica Supersport
1	Mathew Scholtz	45	Josh Herrin	61
2	Sean Dylan Kelly	36	Darryn Binder	58
3	Cameron Beaubier	27	Tyler Scott	56
4	Bobby Fong	25	Kayla Yaakov	42
5	Cameron Petersen	23	Blake Davis	36