Moto predictions for 2026

Beyond that one, our track record is, well, to put it kindly: mixed. That doesn't deter us, however. Here are our guesses for what's coming in the motorcycle world in 2026, with one regular prediction and one long-shot prediction from each member of the team.

Zack Courts: Shrinking middleweights and futuristic fuels

It's no secret that brands have been building down within their own lineups for years now. Smaller versions of BMW GSs, single-cylinder Triumphs with round headlights, et cetera. Ducati made an interesting move this year by making its "middleweight" Panigale V2 smaller in nearly every way. Less power, less weight, and the same price (almost) makes for a decent business plan if you can sell people on it. And I was pretty sold when I rode it. I think this is a trend we'll see more of in the next 12 months and beyond. Flagship models will continue to grow slightly, in order to quench people's thirst for more and bigger, but I suspect premium mid-size offerings will trim weight and power under the guise of offering more simplicity and usability. At least I hope so.

Long-shot predictions are my favorite because I like to go past-the-end-zone long. So, let me ask you: Are you tired of motorcycles that either create power with internal combustion or electricity? Aren't we due for a machine that runs on something… else? Vote for me in 2026 and I will commit myself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of propelling a motorcycle with an alternative fuel and returning safely home. And by that I mean I will continue to wait for someone else to figure it out well enough for consumers. Hydrogen? Natural gas? Ammonia-powered turbine? Look, I'm the marketing guy here, not the scientist, but I think 2026 might be the year that we break new ground, and I'm willing to keep plagiarizing JFK to find out.

Ari Henning: European MotoGP fans start drinking Budweiser, more small-bore options

Bagger racing started as a sideshow in 2020, but the red-headed stepchild of the American roadracing scene has had a Cinderella experience and is now a hugely popular class with sophisticated machinery, top-level riders, and a serious fan base. The concept is so popular, in fact, that an all-Harley contingent has somehow finagled an invite to go on tour with MotoGP for six rounds in 2026. I expect the addition of 600-plus-pound Harleys at hallowed European racing circuits will raise many eyebrows.

As silly as the concept seems, the bikes are badass and the lap times impressive, so I expect that once cynics see these massive V-twins being wrangled around the track, they'll get on board with the concept, at least as a hugely entertaining interlude. I'm not sure how readily available Budweiser is at European venues, but maybe the vendors should start stocking up.

As a long-shot prediction, I sense that the shift from large-displacement adventure and sport machines will gather momentum and we'll see even more mid-size and small-displacement options on the market. BMW has already shown the 2027 F 450 GS, coming out late in 2026, and the Kawasaki KLE500 is rolling out shortly, but Yamaha, Honda, Suzuki, and all the other European brands are due to either update their offerings or enter the game, and I think 2026 is the year it'll happen.

Dustin Wheelen: Growing pains for American OEMs and the tariff situation stabilizes

American V-twin manufacturers will enter new territory in 2026. Harley-Davidson will introduce a sub-$6,000 bike. Indian will go it alone, no longer under Polaris's umbrella. Each scenario presents growth opportunities, but with growth often comes growing pains. That's exactly what I predict for both OEMs next year.

Harley's top-heavy lineup is long overdue for a price-conscious entry-level model. That doesn't mean anyone will want to buy it. Given the price point, I expect Harlistas to disparage its country of origin, naysayers to decry its specs, and newcomers to largely ignore it. Something, something, Street 750. Need I say more?

Indian's position is even more precarious. Following its divorce from Polaris, the brand will retain much of its 900-employee workforce. Coming along for the ride are its manufacturing facilities in Spirit Lake, Iowa, and Monticello, Minnesota, as well as its design center in Burgdorf, Switzerland. As advantageous as that sounds, Indian's new parent company, Carolwood LP, has no experience in the motorsports industry. Two words: Godspeed, Indian.

It's not all doom and gloom, though. I say that because I believe the tariff situation will stabilize at some point in 2026. I know, I know, the odds seem slim, and that's why it's my long-shot prediction, but I fancy myself an optimist. (My wife might say otherwise.) Now, I'm not predicting that the import duties will be favorable. I just believe that tariff turmoil will start to level off, leaving manufacturers with fewer variables to account for when shipping new motorcycles to the United States. Maybe I should keep a wishful eye out for shooting stars and dandelions over the next 12 months.

Spurgeon Dunbar: A new bike for Lance, same old upheaval for motorcycling

I fear that as soon as my copy crosses Lance's desk my prediction will be dead in the water. That being said, I'm going to proceed even if it means shooting myself in both feet. My first prediction is that 2026 will be the year Lance buys a new motorcycle, more specifically, a Triumph Tiger Sport 800.

First and foremost, I read the comments here. And in spite of Lance's hurtful allegations, I'm not selfishly predicting Lance buy a new Tiger Sport 800 to pad my inheritance. (For those of you who might not know, I currently reside in Mr. Oliver's will as the next steward of his soon-to-be vintage Speed Triple.) To the contrary, I just think it's time Lance adds a new, reliable, sport-touring machine to his stable to replace the Honda VFR800 he sold. I know he's been having fun on his new Kawi 300, but let's be honest, even he admits that bike isn't designed for chewing up the miles Lance likes to traverse. And as impressed as I am with the odometer reading on Lance's old Speed Triple, it's no longer a go-to choice for "uneventful" travel. To that end, my prediction, as well as my holiday wish for my ol' buddy Lance, is that he finds a new motorcycle in his garage in the coming year.

I'm taking the opposite side from Dustin, and my shot-in-the-dark prediction is that unpredictability continues to wreak havoc in the motorcycle industry. Like it or not, the majority of the motorcycles that we love are imported from foreign shores and the current administration's unpredictable tariff policies have made it hard to determine a stable pricing structure for motorcycles, as well as for spare parts, accessories, and apparel. That lack of stability is going to make it harder for dealerships and retailers to maintain existing customers and, more importantly, attract new ones.

If you all want to help ensure my second prediction fails, all you have to do is make the effort to get one new person into riding motorcycles in 2026. I'd happily be a loser in 2026 if it means motorcycling wins.

Lance Oliver: KTMs from India and DeadWire

It's going to take more than one year, 2026, for the process to play out fully, but in the coming year I expect to see the beginnings of KTM starting to look a lot like Triumph, in terms of structure. While engineering and R&D work may still be done (by a slimmed-down workforce) in Austria, production will increasingly be shifted to India, overseen by new controlling owner Bajaj. Not just the small bikes, but mid-sized, as well. We may see halo products still produced in Europe, but just as Triumph has successfully moved virtually all production out of the UK, expect KTMs to be made less and less in Austria and more in India.

My long-shot prediction is that by the end of the year, LiveWire won't just be low-voltage. It'll be a dead circuit. Plug pulled. Choose your preferred cheap metaphor. The electric motorcycle company spun off from Harley-Davidson sold about 1% as many motorcycles in 2025 as it originally predicted it would sell this year. The reality is that, despite cost-cutting measures, the company has burned through most of the assets raised through its public stock offering and majority owner Harley-Davidson has said it's not investing any more. Meanwhile, I see no path to profitability. Cutting the price of the LiveWire One didn't boost sales. The S2 line that was supposed to increase sales greatly didn't flourish. Now we have the S4 Honcho, which is possibly a better idea, but too little, too late.

The big unknown that could derail this prediction is that I have no idea what new Harley-Davidson CEO Artie Starrs' attitude is toward LiveWire, so we could see a change of strategy. But otherwise I expect LiveWire to be sold for pennies on the dollar to new owners who plan an entirely new direction (kill the motorcycles and keep selling STACYCs?), or else the company just shuts down entirely. If not 2026, then 2027.