Cancellation of the Isle of Man TT is looking more likely

STATEMENT ON BEHALF OF ISLE OF MAN GOVERNMENT

The Isle of Man Government is carefully monitoring the Island’s position regarding COVID-19 (Coronavirus) with a cross-government working group established to regularly review the changing situation.

While the threat to the public in the Isle of Man remains low, a number of future contingency scenarios are being considered. This is usual practice and is in line with the WHO advice for preparations in case of a pandemic.

The risk is low and preparations for this year’s TT remain on schedule. Work will continue as usual in order to ensure another successful TT.

That was less than two weeks ago, but it seems everything’s changed. MotoGP and World Superbike races have been canceled or rescheduled, and much of northern Italy is locked down. The odds of "another successful TT" taking place this summer are looking worse.

On the same day the government effectively said “the TT is still on,” it passed an act in Tynwald (the Manx Parliament) called "Health Protection (Coronavirus) Regulations 2020." Not surprisingly, the regulations specifically allow for the imposition of travel restrictions and quarantine periods, and allow for the government to ban visitors from “infected areas,” a definition that now covers the rest of the world.

So far, there have been no confirmed cases of Covid-19 on the Isle of Man. Of course, it’s going to be impossible to keep the virus off the Isle of Man altogether, but there are still powerful incentives to reduce the rate at which new infections occur.

The health care system on the Isle of Man is excellent and Nobles Hospital, the island’s main facility, punches above its weight, considering the whole country’s population is only about 85,000. Still, Nobles only has about 300 beds. Effective treatment of severe Covid-19 cases requires mechanical ventilation — just one example of a capacity that could easily be exceeded on a small island.

Disease has canceled the Isle of Man TT before

In 2001, an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease ravaged cattle, sheep, and pig farms in England. Foot-and-mouth can be spread by moving dirt from an infected area to an uninfected one. Even the amount of dirt on visitors’ shoes or tires could have spread the disease to the Isle of Man. And of course farmers on the island were acutely aware that fans traipse through their fields all the time. The farmers warned that holding the TT might destroy an important year-round industry.

The Isle of Man government dithered for a while, trying to balance the likely cost to farmers against the certain loss of TT tourism. The people who supported the TT warned that if fans skipped one year, they might not come back. In Tynwald, local politicians debated the possibility of setting up disinfectant baths for vehicles coming off the ferry. But in late April, a month before racers and the first fans were due to arrive, the government canceled the TT altogether.

Foot-and-mouth is nothing compared to Covid-19. Foot-and-mouth disease very rarely crosses the species barrier into people. On those rare occasions, it isn’t fatal or even very harmful, so it’s not considered a threat to public health. The decision to cancel the TT was made on strictly economic grounds.

I was there for the next TT, in 2002, and if anything the fans came back with a vengeance. Over the next decade, the event went from strength to strength. I am sure that right now on the Isle of Man, officials are recalling that experience and thinking, “We canceled it once before and it recovered the following year.”

Last year, official estimates placed the number of TT visitors at 46,000. On that first race weekend, the population of the island briefly peaks at about 150 percent of normal. The ferries are jammed; so are bars, restaurants, grandstands. By the government’s estimate, the average fan spends £801, pumping about £37 million into the Manx economy and generating about £4.8 million for the government itself.

That’s not trivial, but it pales in comparison to both the economic and, potentially, the human cost of a more severe Covid-19 outbreak.

Holding the TT as usual presents two risks: the short term influx of people, many of whom could fall ill during the TT fortnight, might exceed hospital capacity; and a flood of visitors who are infected but not yet showing symptoms could easily result in a much more severe local epidemic later in the summer.

The very high death rates recorded at ground zero for the pandemic, in Wuhan, China, illustrate the risks of overwhelming hospital capacity. There’s a direct correlation between slowing the rate of transmission and lowering the mortality rate. That’s why I expect the government of the Isle of Man to cancel the 2020 TT some time in the next month.

Italy’s quarantine threatens MotoGP

Italy, which had placed travel restrictions on much of the northern part of the country over the weekend, expanded that to the entire country effective today, limiting travel in and out of the country and even within it. Five of the 22 full-time MotoGP riders are Italians (six if you count Andrea Ianonne, currently suspended while appealing a drug ban).

There was a clause in earlier quarantine rules, specifying that people could travel for “provable work duties,” as long as they did not have a fever. I don’t know if travel exceptions would be made for the racers and many team staff based in Italy. Dorna has already said that unless all riders can attend the races, no races will be held. As of right now, no dates are carved in stone.

Finally, all these disruptions raise a question: Is there a silver lining in this for MotoAmerica?

It’s hard to imagine the United States imposing bans on internal travel like the ones in China or Italy. If there’s no MotoGP or World Superbike racing for a while, even on TV, maybe racing addicts will get their fix by attending a MotoAmerica race or watching it on TV. If the MotoGP round at Circuit of the Americas is canceled, taking the opening round of MotoAmerica Superbikes with it, then MotoAmerica plans to begin its season at Road Atlanta on April 17-19.