2023 Moto predictions scorecard

Overall, I'd say 2023 was a fairly typical year. We nailed a few predictions and were totally wrong on some others that we stated with what appeared to be calm confidence (though in reality we were probably just faking it).

So let's dive in and look at what we thought would happen and what really happened.

Our former colleague Andy Greaser noted the acquisitiveness of KTM parent company Pierer Mobility and that it had already bought a 25.1% stake in MV Agusta. Andy speculated that KTM would buy the rest of MV Agusta. Now we get into that age-old question: Were you wrong or just early? Pierer Mobility recently said it plans to take a majority stake in MV Agusta in 2026.

For his long-shot prediction, Andy bet that a major manufacturer, probably European, would begin offering a direct leasing option for new motorcycles. That one didn't pan out. We miss you, Andy, but no clear winners in your last shot at ZLA moto predictions.

Patrick Garvin predicted the continued rise of the King of the Baggers series in MotoAmerica and suggested some things we might see that would prove his point: a bigger presence in the paddock by Indian, a line of Challenger performance parts from Indian to follow Harley-Davidson's lead, and maybe even "a MotoAmerica edition factory bagger available on a showroom floor." There's no doubt King of the Baggers has been on a steep, upward trajectory, going from a one-off invitational race in 2020 to a 14-race series in 2023 with multiple former Superbike riders stacking the field and lots of fan attention. We still haven't seen Harley-Davidson and Indian doing a lot in the showroom to capitalize on that popularity, however, so while Patrick's prediction was correct in spirit, he may have been early on some of the details.

For his long-shot prediction, Patrick predicted that rules changes and a reduced effort by Indian in American Flat Track would open the door for a KTM rider to win a SuperTwins mile race. On the last chance of the year for Patrick's prediction to come through, Briar Bauman obliged and won the Springfield Mile II on a KTM by less than a bike length, as seen in the highlights video above. Prediction confirmed.

Jen Dunstan predicted the continued rise of the Ducati dynasty in MotoGP, and no one can say she got it wrong. In the constructor's championship, Ducati almost doubled the points of every other manufacturer, with 700 to second-place KTM's 373. In the teams competition, the top three teams were on Ducatis and of course in the rider's championship the top three were all riding Ducatis. Can't argue with that success — or Jen's prediction.

For her long-shot prediction, Jen said that sales would decline for off-road and dual-sport motorcycles and side-by-side four-wheelers. Those segments saw massive spikes in sales after the pandemic, and Jen thought it wouldn't last. We don't have full-year figures yet, but based on preliminary numbers, she was either wrong or just early. Dual-sport sales were up by single-digit percentages over 2022's strong sales and off-road motorcycle sales were up even more, about 15 percent year over year. Things are visibly cooling off in these segments that saw massive spikes related to COVID, but it's taking more time to unwind than Jen expected.

Spurgeon Dunbar predicted that overall U.S. new motorcycle unit sales would drop "at least 8% in 2023 over 2022" but he took the opposite side of Jen's long-shot prediction and said that off-road sales would stay positive. Let's call Spurgeon partially right. Again, based on preliminary numbers, it looks like overall motorcycle sales will be a few small percentage points higher in 2023 than in 2022, and definitely not "at least 8% lower." But dirt bike sales did go up.

Also casting an optimistic eye at the motorcycle market was Spenser Robert, who felt that supply chain glitches had been ironed out and a normal supply of motorcycles would mean that prices for used motorcycles would fall back from their highly inflated levels. "Mark the words of this chronic prognosticator: 2023 is the year of the two-wheel deal!" Spenser said. True? Manufacturers are once again offering incentives on new motorcycles as dealer inventories have now fully recovered. And, anecdotally, Spenser and I are both seeing used bikes sitting for sale longer than they were, but that's partly because sellers are reluctant to let go of the pandemic premium and prices are still high. Does that qualify as "the year of the two-wheel deal"? Even Spenser himself, now benefiting from hindsight, says that was overly optimistic.

For his long-shot prediction, Spenser noted that Royal Enfield's U.S. sales doubled from 2021 to 2022, and predicted they'd double again in 2023. Once again, we don't have full-year figures yet, but from what I can see, Royal Enfield is seeing modest sales growth in the U.S. market, far short of 100% growth. With new models reaching dealerships in 2024, I suspect the Indian company's momentum will continue, but doubling every year is too much to expect, and was too much to ask for in 2023.

Zack Courts predicted that the swell of new motorcycles in what is now considered the middleweight category "will become the flagships of our world." While it might be difficult to put a hard "yes" or "no" answer on that rather subjective assertion, I think Zack's essentially right. In 2023, we saw a ton of reader interest in the delayed arrival to the United States of the Honda Transalp, and new entries such as the Suzuki GSX-8S provided accessibly priced competition to the good choices already available at various price points from Yamaha, KTM, Honda, Triumph, and Aprilia. Whether they're into adventure-tourers or street-going naked bikes, many riders are deciding the best choice is not the expensive model with 1,200 cc, but rather something in the 700 cc to 900 cc range that's easier to handle and less painful to pay for.

For his long-shot prediction, Zack — like Andy — looked at KTM's acquisitiveness and then predicted KTM would buy Zero Motorcycles. It didn't happen, and instead, California-based Zero announced plans to begin building motorcycles in the Philippines, which none of us predicted.

As for my own predictions, I'm going to risk stirring some controversy and award myself a near-perfect score. I predicted that in 2023 we would finally see the Chinese-built, Harley-Davidson-badged motorcycles that had been openly talked about since 2019 and indeed the X 350 and X 500 were introduced in China. I also predicted those motorcycles would not be sold in the United States (even after some other sites reported differently) because the backlash from many of Harley-Davidson's most loyal customers would be too costly. The X 350 RA did come to the United States for use as a trainer in the Harley-Davidson Riding Academy, but the company has stated those models won't be sold here.

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My long-shot prediction was that with 22 rounds of MotoGP and the addition of sprint races on Saturday, "something is going to crack." Even though one round was canceled, 42 races, including a grueling year-end sprint of six races in six different countries on three continents in seven weeks, was too much, I argued. My case for saying I was right is simple: At every single round, at least one of the regular riders missed action due to injury, and usually it was multiple riders out because they were hurt. Some were lucky to walk away without life-changing or life-ending injuries, such as Pol Espargaró, who spent weeks with his broken jaw wired shut and suffered spinal column injuries that could have left him paralyzed. Something did crack, and it was usually riders' bones.

That's a wrap on 2023, our predictions, and our Year in Review stories. In 11 months or so, we'll do it all again.